An eye-tracking study of statistical reasoning with tree diagrams and 2 x 2 tables
Autor:innen
Autor:in (Körperschaft)
Publikationsdatum
2019
Typ der Arbeit
Studiengang
Sammlung
Typ
01A - Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschrift
Herausgeber:innen
Herausgeber:in (Körperschaft)
Betreuer:in
Übergeordnetes Werk
Frontiers in Psychology
Themenheft
DOI der Originalpublikation
Link
Reihe / Serie
Reihennummer
Jahrgang / Band
10
Ausgabe / Nummer
632
Seiten / Dauer
Patentnummer
Verlag / Herausgebende Institution
Frontiers
Verlagsort / Veranstaltungsort
Auflage
Version
Programmiersprache
Abtretungsempfänger:in
Praxispartner:in/Auftraggeber:in
Zusammenfassung
Changing the information format from probabilities into frequencies as well as employing appropriate visualizations such as tree diagrams or 2 × 2 tables are important tools that can facilitate people’s statistical reasoning. Previous studies have shown that despite their widespread use in statistical textbooks, both of those visualization types are only of restricted help when they are provided with probabilities, but that they can foster insight when presented with frequencies instead. In the present study, we attempt to replicate this effect and also examine, by the method of eye tracking, why probabilistic 2 × 2 tables and tree diagrams do not facilitate reasoning with regard to Bayesian inferences (i.e., determining what errors occur and whether they can be explained by scan paths), and why the same visualizations are of great help to an individual when they are combined with frequencies. All ten inferences of N = 24 participants were based solely on tree diagrams or 2 × 2 tables that presented either the famous “mammography context” or an “economics context” (without additional textual wording). We first asked participants for marginal, conjoint, and (non-inverted) conditional probabilities (or frequencies), followed by related Bayesian tasks. While solution rates were higher for natural frequency questions as compared to probability versions, eye-tracking analyses indeed yielded noticeable differences regarding eye movements between correct and incorrect solutions. For instance, heat maps (aggregated scan paths) of distinct results differed remarkably, thereby making correct and faulty strategies visible in the line of theoretical classifications. Moreover, the inherent structure of 2 × 2 tables seems to help participants avoid certain Bayesian mistakes (e.g., “Fisherian” error) while tree diagrams seem to help steer them away from others (e.g., “joint occurrence”). We will discuss resulting educational consequences at the end of the paper.
Schlagwörter
Bayesian reasoning, eye tracking, 2 x 2 table, tree diagram, natural frequencies, probabilities
Fachgebiet (DDC)
150 - Psychologie
Veranstaltung
Startdatum der Ausstellung
Enddatum der Ausstellung
Startdatum der Konferenz
Enddatum der Konferenz
Datum der letzten Prüfung
ISBN
ISSN
1664-1078
Sprache
Englisch
Während FHNW Zugehörigkeit erstellt
Ja
Zukunftsfelder FHNW
Publikationsstatus
Veröffentlicht
Begutachtung
Peer-Review der ganzen Publikation
Open Access-Status
Lizenz
Zitation
BRUCKMAIER, Georg, Karin BINDER, Stefan KRAUSS und Han-Min KUFNER, 2019. An eye-tracking study of statistical reasoning with tree diagrams and 2 x 2 tables. Frontiers in Psychology. 2019. Bd. 10, Nr. 632. DOI 10.26041/fhnw-2013. Verfügbar unter: https://doi.org/10.26041/fhnw-2013