Impact of component service life uncertainty on the embodied carbon emissions of hyperloop infrastructure

Abstract

The uncertainty in component service lives significantly affects the embodied carbon emissions of transportation infrastructure. Existing Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies report inconsistent results for the carbon footprint of novel transport infrastructure such the one envisioned for hyperloop due to varying service life assumptions and system boundaries. This study introduces a stochastic LCA framework to systematically assess how component durability influences emissions and the proposed method is applied on four hyperloop designs: Electrodynamic Suspension with concrete tubes (EDS-CT), Electrodynamic Suspension with steel tubes (EDS-ST), Electromagnetic Suspension with concrete tubes (EMS-CT), and Electromagnetic Suspension with steel tubes (EMS-ST). Using Sobol’ variance decomposition based on Monte Carlo sampling, the framework quantifies the carbon footprints of the four hyperloop designs studied and their variability resulting from uncertainty in component service life. Results show that EMS-CT has the lowest carbon emissions with the smallest variability, whereas EDS-ST exhibits the highest emissions and greatest uncertainty. The replacement stage, driven by component service lives, represents the largest source of uncertainty followed by operational energy. Among components, the service lives of tubes, rails, and pillars contribute the most to overall embodied carbon uncertainty, while vacuum system components (e.g., valves and pumps) have only a moderate impact. These findings underscore the importance of material selection and engineering design as well as the need for proper maintenance strategies to extend the components lifespans to reduce the carbon footprint of hyperloop infrastructures.