Hochschule für Architektur, Bau und Geomatik FHNW
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Publikation Comparing Q347 development and regionalization using recent data in two Swiss cantons(09.11.2024) Dups, Yanick; Lebrenz, HenningIn Switzerland, low flows are characterized by the discharge level corresponding to a 95% exceedance probability on a ten-year average flow duration curve, referred to as Q347. This threshold not only has significant implications for planning but also requires authorities to adjust the operation of relevant infrastructure to mitigate ecological impacts on watercourses. The value of Q347 can be determined from a flow duration curve if a discharge time series of at least ten years is available. However, for smaller catchments such time series are typically unavailable, necessitating the regionalization of Q347 values. In Switzerland, multiple linear regression has been established to estimate the area-specific discharge q347 for ungauged basins. The primary objective of this study was to regionalize Q347 values for small, ungauged catchments (383 in the Canton of Solothurn and 9'034 in the Canton of Zürich) each with an area of less than 100 km². Daily discharge, precipitation, and temperature time series were collected for a 30-year study period from 1990 to 2020 from 56 gauged catchments in Solothurn, and similarly for a ten-year study period from 2013 to 2023 in Zürich, focusing on catchments smaller than 500 km² surrounding the target areas. A total of 30 “static” parameters delineating geometry, topography, geology, land use, and drainage along with nine “climatic” parameters describing temperatures, precipitation distributions, and potential evapotranspiration were defined and computed to characterize both gauged and ungauged catchments. The temporal variability of low flow events was then analysed for observed catchments in the two study areas. Over the past 30 years, the frequency of low flow events below the threshold has systematically increased, while the ten-year Q347 values for these catchments have decreased during the same period. Three multiple linear regression methods were developed and implemented to be coupled with two adjustment techniques supplementing truncated discharge time series. Validation of the proposed models showed reduced errors and increased linear correlations between estimated and observed values compared to standard models. Notably, a spatially more homogeneous yet catchment-specific distribution of estimated values is observable. The proposed models yielded promising results, particularly when time series remain unadjusted, or adjustment is done using the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) combined with the flow duration curve of a donor basin (Ridolfi et al., 2020). Using recent data for parameter selection and model fitting, especially in the Zürich study area (2013-2022), often resulted in lower Q347 values compared to standard models, reflecting an adaptation to current climatic trends.06 - PräsentationPublikation New estimation models for determining the Q347(17.04.2024) Dups, Yanick; Santolamazza, Daniela Pavia; Staufer, Philipp; Lebrenz, HenningIn Switzerland, low flows are described by the five percent quantile denoted by Q347. This threshold value not only has consequences for the planning, but also necessitates authorities to adjust the operation of pertinent infrastructure to mitigate ecological impacts on watercourses. Given a discharge timeseries spanning at least a ten-year period, determination of the Q347 can be done using the duration curve. Typically, said timeseries are not available for smaller catchments necessitating the estimation of the threshold value Q347. In Switzerland, the utilization of multiple linear regression has been established to estimate the area-specific discharge q347. The primary objective of these investigations is to estimate the Q347 value for 383 ungauged catchments in the Canton of Solothurn, each covering an area less than 100 km². Daily discharge, precipitation and temperature timeseries ranging from 1990 to 2020 were collected from 56 gauged catchments smaller than 500 km² surrounding the target area. 30 “static” parameters delineating geometry, topography, geology, land use, and drainage along with nine “climatic” parameters describing temperatures, precipitation distributions, and potential evapotranspiration were defined and computed to characterize gauged and ungauged catchments. Alongside comparing three regression methods, coupled with two adjustment techniques supplementing truncated discharge timeseries, three parameter selection methods are evaluated. The validation of the proposed models shows reduced errors and increased linear correlations between estimated and observed values compared to currently applied models. Notably, a spatially more homogeneous yet catchment-specific distribution of estimated values is observable. Particularly when timeseries remain unadjusted or adjustment is done using the Antecedent Precipitation Index (API) and the flow duration curve from a donor basin (Ridolfi, E.; Kumar, H.; Bárdossy, A., 2020), the proposed models yield promising results. Furthermore, the temporal variability of low flow events for the glacier-free catchments in the study area has been analysed. The frequency of low flow events below the threshold systematically increased over the last 30 years, while the 10-year Q347 value of said catchments has systematically decreased in the same period. The increase in low flow days leads to large errors in the estimation of the Q347 value, especially when its estimation is based on truncated timeseries. As further changes in runoff behaviour are to be expected due to climate change, extending the definition of "low flow" to include event duration and intensity alongside a fixed threshold value could offer a more suitable description.06 - PräsentationPublikation Neue Abschätzungsmodelle zur Bestimmung des Q347(Schweizerischer Wasserwirtschaftsverband, 2023) Dups, Yanick; Santolamazza, Daniela Pavia; Staufer, Philipp; Lebrenz, HenningNiedrigwasserperioden können mit dem Q347 (5-Prozent-Quantil) beschrieben werden. Die Unterschreitung dieses Schwellenwertes hat Auswirkungen auf die Planung und den Betrieb relevanter Infrastruktur, auch um die ökologischen Auswirkungen in den Fliessgewässern zu reduzieren. In dieser Studie werden für die gletscherfreien Einzugsgebiete des Untersuchungsgebiets um den Kanton Solothurn die zeitliche Variabilität der Unterschreitungsereignisse analysiert und neue Abschätzungsmodelle des Q347-Wertes für unbeobachtete Einzugsgebiete vorgestellt. In den letzten 30 Jahren ist ein vermehrtes Auftreten der Unterschreitungstage, bzw. eine systematische Abnahme der Q347-Werte aufgrund von Klimawandel, zu beobachten. Auch ist die Eintrittswahrscheinlichkeit der Niedrigwasserperioden mit zunehmender Er-eignisdauer für spätere Sommermonate am höchsten. Des Weiteren schlagen wir neue Regressionsmethoden zur Ab-schätzung des Q347 für unbeobachtete Einzugsgebiete vor. Wir vergleichen drei Verfahren zur Auswahl von geeigneten Parametern und evaluieren drei Regressionsmodelle in Kombination mit zwei Anpassungsmethoden zur Ergänzung verkürzter Zeitreihen des gemessenen Abflusses. Die Validierung ergibt, dass die vorgeschlagenen Modelle kleinere Fehler und grössere, lineare Zusammenhänge zwischen Schätz-und beobachtetem Wert erzeugen als die Vergleichs-modelle. Die Anwendung auf die «Einzugsgebietsgliederung Schweiz» zeigt eine räumlich homogenere, aber EZG-spezifische Verteilung des Q347. Diese sollte als Beitrag zur Bewältigung der zukünftigen Herausforderungen in der Was-serwirtschaft angesehen werden.01B - Beitrag in Magazin oder Zeitung
