Intraday dynamics of euro area sovereign CDS and bonds
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09/2013
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01B - Magazine or newspaper article
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Bank for International Settlements Working Paper
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423
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1-82
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Bank for International Settlements
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Abstract
The recent sovereign debt crisis in the euro area has seen credit spreads on sovereign bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) surge for a number of member states. While these events have increased interest in understanding the dynamics of sovereign spreads
in bond and CDS markets, there is little agreement in the literature as to whether one of the two markets is more important than the other in terms of price discovery of sovereign credit risk. In this paper we reexamine this issue using intraday data for both market segments and employing carefully constructed cash (bond) spreads to ensure proper comparability with CDS spreads. This enables us to obtain much sharper estimates in our empirical analysis, and hence substantially clearer results with respect to price discovery. We find that the pricing of sovereign credit risk in the bond and in the CDS market converges over time, and that deviations between
the two market segments do not persist for long. A key result is that the CDS market dominates the bond market in terms of price discovery in the vast majority of cases we examine. That is, CDS premia in many cases adjust more quickly to reflect new information than bonds spreads. This result holds also when taking into account transaction costs in the analysis.
Keywords
Sovereign credit risk, credit default swaps, price discovery, intraday
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1020-0959
1682-7678
1682-7678
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English
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No
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Published
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TERS, Kristyna, Peter HOERDAHL, Jacob GYNTELBERG und Jörg URBAN, 2013. Intraday dynamics of euro area sovereign CDS and bonds. Bank for International Settlements Working Paper. September 2013. Nr. 423, S. 1–82. Verfügbar unter: http://hdl.handle.net/11654/24901