Supply and service chain dynamics in a digital age. Going beyond the traditional usage of honeypot data

Abstract

The Beer Distribution Game Management Flight Simulator is a well-known approach to better understand the dynamics of supply chains and for teaching principles for effective management. Supply chain dynamics provides us with a lot of knowledge about the drivers for the bullwhip effect and levers to reduce this effect. In an increasingly digital world, the usage of information technology also reduces delays and improves the quality of information sharing. Both the increased dependency on information technology and introduction of new digital technological service concepts (like DAAS, PAAS, SAAS) intensify the potential of cyber risks to such chain. We believe this introduction to cyberspace evokes new game theory-like dilemmas with their own dynamic structure that may have an impact on the bullwhip effect. Our exploratory research focusses on a service chain. The basis of this paper is a modelling project where we have been able to combine honey pot data (external view / attacker view) with SD modelling techniques, including specific equations relevant to cyber-security. This combination provides us insights about the defenders’ strength and occurred incidents (internal view). Our application of honeypot data goes far beyond the regular intelligence gathering and scanning activities. This research highlighted that additional bullwhip effects, although differently observed, may occur in a service chain based on these new service concepts. We also noticed that sharing of security relevant information improves effective management in such chain. That is, early anticipation of the defender to limits the impact of cyber-attacks.