Measuring discursive lock-in with the Narrative Policy Framework: an analysis of public debates on fossil gas in Germany

Abstract

This article measures the phenomenon of discursive lock-in via narratives, as conceptualized by the Narrative Policy Framework (NPF). Discursive lock-in underlies other forms of carbon lock-in that hinder societies from phasing out fossil fuels. Thus, being able to assess the characteristics of discursive lock-in is fundamental for its destabilization. In applying the proposed measurement to German newspaper articles on fossil gas that appeared both before and after the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the analysis shows that although attention towards fossil gas rose, the discursive lock-in got reinforced, with the proportion of narratives not questioning gas usage remaining stable and critical narratives bemoaning the building of new fossil fuel infrastructure. These findings highlight the resilience of fossil-friendly narratives even in the face of EU-level policy shifts such as the Green Deal and REPowerEU. The combination of discursive lock-in and the NPF proves to be fruitful and opens avenues for future research.