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Bereich: Suchergebnisse
Publikation Evolution of sovereign risk of european G-SIBs(Springer, 2024) Alvarez, Loïc; Ters, Kristyna; Hüttche, TobiasThis chapter shows some evidence that sovereign risk remains a sigu0002nificant concern for European ‘Global Systemically Important Banks’ (G-SIBs) despite the lessons learned from the euro area sovereign debt crisis. Analysis of data from the European Banking Authority (EBA) reveals that many of these banks continue to hold substantial levels of sovereign debt exposure to GIIPS (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) countries, with exposure ranging from 10% to 20%. Notably, UniCredit and Santander stand out with exposure levels exceeding 25% towards GIIPS nations, exposing them to potential sovereign risk from market disturbances within those countries. We also show that partial correlations between Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spreads of certain G-SIBs and GIIPS countries remain relatively high, likely influenced by the significant sovereign debt exposure these banks maintain. Furthermore, the high Debt-to-GDP ratios of GIIPS countries, along with the potential cascading effects of a government’s failure on financial institutions, highlight the interconnectedness and vulnerability of the European banking system. While regulatory frameworks like the Basel Accords have played a crucial role in maintaining financial stability, the approach to risk-weighted assets associated with sovereign debts remains contentious. The allowance for a 0% risk weight on sovereign bonds issued by EU member states, as part of the Capital Requirements Regulation (CRR), may incentivize increased holdings of such debts, amplifying sovereign risk. Moreover, High Quality Liquid Assets (HQLA) regulations encouraging banks to retain sovereign debt result in an increased risk for a new sovereign-bank nexus. Our findings reveal potential weaknesses within the European banking system, emphasizing the need for thorough scrutiny and systemic management of this persisting issue.04A - Beitrag SammelbandPublikation Price discovery in euro area sovereign credit markets: Evidence from the GIIPS countries 10 years after the implementation of the ban on naked short selling of CDS(Springer, 2024) Häusler, Sascha; Ters, Kristyna; Hüttche, TobiasWe analyze the price discovery process between credit spreads and credit default swaps (CDS) of sovereign credit risk in GIIPS countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) as well as Germany and France after the implementation of the regulatory ban on outright short selling of sovereign CDS, implemented after the euro area sovereign debt crisis. Our findings show evidence, that the CDS market continues to be relevant for price discovery in euro area sovereign credit markets. However, unlike earlier studies with shorter sample periods, the bond market has been observed to incorporate information more rapidly than the CDS market for most countries in the sample. In the case of Ireland and Greece, both markets significantly contribute to the price discovery process, but the bond market in most countries exhibits faster adjustment dynamics. Our findings deviate from previous research with shorter sample periods after the introduction of the ban, which indicated CDS market leadership in price discovery for most markets. However, in our analysis, CDS leadership was observed only in Portugal and Spain, suggesting that further investigation is warranted to comprehend the evolving dynamics of the sovereign credit market. One intriguing finding concerns the Italian credit market, where the implementation of the unconventional European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, specifically the Quantitative Easing (QE) program in January 2015, disrupted market functioning due to excessive liquidity. Consequently, the CDS and bond yield spreads in the Italian market were no longer cointegrated during that period.04A - Beitrag SammelbandPublikation Estimating unknown arbitrage costs: evidence from a 3-regime threshold vector error correction model(Elsevier, 2020) Ters, Kristyna; Urban, JörgWe present a methodology for estimating a multivariate 3-regime threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) with an unknown cointegrating vector based on a new dynamic grid evaluation. This model is particularly useful for estimating deviations from parity conditions, such as unknown arbitrage costs in markets with a persistent non-zero basis between two similar financial market instruments traded in the spot and derivative markets. Our proposed 3-regime TVECM can estimate the area where arbitrageurs have no incentives to trade. It is only when the basis exceeds a critical threshold, that is when the potential gain from the basis trade exceeds the overall transaction costs, that we expect arbitrageurs to step in and carry out the respective trade. This leads to non-linear adjustment dynamics and regimes with different characteristics. Our methodology allows overall transaction costs to be quantified in markets where trading costs are opaque or unknown.01A - Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschrift