2020, Ters, Kristyna, Urban, Jörg

We present a methodology for estimating a multivariate 3-regime threshold vector error correction model (TVECM) with an unknown cointegrating vector based on a new dynamic grid evaluation. This model is particularly useful for estimating deviations from parity conditions, such as unknown arbitrage costs in markets with a persistent non-zero basis between two similar financial market instruments traded in the spot and derivative markets. Our proposed 3-regime TVECM can estimate the area where arbitrageurs have no incentives to trade. It is only when the basis exceeds a critical threshold, that is when the potential gain from the basis trade exceeds the overall transaction costs, that we expect arbitrageurs to step in and carry out the respective trade. This leads to non-linear adjustment dynamics and regimes with different characteristics. Our methodology allows overall transaction costs to be quantified in markets where trading costs are opaque or unknown.

2018, Gyntelberg, Jacob, Hördahl, Peter, Ters, Kristyna, Urban, Jörg

The sovereign debt crisis in the euro area saw credit spreads on sovereign bonds and credit default swaps (CDS) surge for a number of member states. The rise in sovereign yields was accompanied by a significant increase in sovereign CDS market activity. This pattern raised concerns that destabilising speculation via outright short-selling of CDS (so-called ‘naked CDS’) was behind the increase in bond yields. In response, policy-makers introduced a ban on naked CDS trading. We investigate the effect of the ban on the price discovery process of sovereign credit risk, contrasting results for the post-ban period with those obtained prior to the ban. We use intraday data on sovereign CDS and bonds across a number of euro area countries. Our first main finding is that the CDS market dominates the bond market in terms of price discovery. That is, CDS premia in most cases adjust quicker to reflect new information than bond spreads. This result holds also when taking into account transaction costs. Our second main finding is that the ban on short-selling did not alter price discovery dynamics or reduce the efficiency of the market. Finally, we find that prior to the ban, CDS spreads were persistently higher than bond credit spreads, even after controlling for transaction costs. This points to the presence of market frictions that limit the ability of arbitrage forces to fully close pricing gaps between the two markets. However, these pricing discrepancies were in many cases largely eliminated following the introduction of the ban.

2018, Ters, Kristyna, Urban, Jörg

With the onset of the euro area sovereign debt crisis, the CDS spreads of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia (the Visegrad group) increased even though the Visegrad group maintained solid public finances and ratings on average. Real economic linkages such as trade between the Visegrad group as important trading partner to the GIIPS countries might have led to this increase in sovereign credit risk due to contagion during the sovereign debt crisis period. We aim to analyse whether contagion led to higher sovereign risk in the Visegrad group and furthermore, whether the economic adjustment programmes (EAPs) by the Troika have been able to stabilise and reduce sovereign risk. We analyse 30-min intraday credit default swaps (CDS) data prior to the sovereign debt crisis period (2008–Oct. 2009) and during the sovereign debt crisis period (Oct. 2009–2011). By using a panel VAR methodology we find rather comovement effects in the Visegrad group member countries as they have been only marginally affected by the turmoil in the peripheral countries during the sovereign debt crisis. In contrast, we find strong contagion effects amongst the GIIPS countries in our sample. From an event study, we find that the EAPs have been essential for the GIIPS countries in terms of reducing contagion and sovereign risk across the euro area while the Visegrad group only reacted with a moderate reduction.