Bruckmaier, Georg
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- PublikationVisualizing the Bayesian 2-test case: The effect of tree diagrams on medical decision making(Public Library of Science, 2018) Binder, Karin; Krauss, Stefan; Bruckmaier, Georg; Marienhagen, Jörg [in: PLOS ONE]In medicine, diagnoses based on medical test results are probabilistic by nature. Unfortunately, cognitive illusions regarding the statistical meaning of test results are well documented among patients, medical students, and even physicians. There are two effective strategies that can foster insight into what is known as Bayesian reasoning situations: (1) translating the statistical information on the prevalence of a disease and the sensitivity and the false-alarm rate of a specific test for that disease from probabilities into natural frequencies, and (2) illustrating the statistical information with tree diagrams, for instance, or with other pictorial representation. So far, such strategies have only been empirically tested in combination for “1-test cases”, where one binary hypothesis (“disease” vs. “no disease”) has to be diagnosed based on one binary test result (“positive” vs. “negative”). However, in reality, often more than one medical test is conducted to derive a diagnosis. In two studies, we examined a total of 388 medical students from the University of Regensburg (Germany) with medical “2-test scenarios”. Each student had to work on two problems: diagnosing breast cancer with mammography and sonography test results, and diagnosing HIV infection with the ELISA and Western Blot tests. In Study 1 (N = 190 participants), we systematically varied the presentation of statistical information (“only textual information” vs. “only tree diagram” vs. “text and tree diagram in combination”), whereas in Study 2 (N = 198 participants), we varied the kinds of tree diagrams (“complete tree” vs. “highlighted tree” vs. “pruned tree”). All versions were implemented in probability format (including probability trees) and in natural frequency format (including frequency trees). We found that natural frequency trees, especially when the question-related branches were highlighted, improved performance, but that none of the corresponding probabilistic visualizations did.01A - Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschrift
- PublikationPrediction of elementary mathematics grades by cognitive abilities(Springer, 2018) Hilbert, Sven; Bruckmaier, Georg; Binder, Karin; Krauss, Stefan; Bühner, Markus [in: European Journal of Psychology of Education]In the present study, the relationship between the mathematics grade and the three basic cognitive abilities (inhibition, working memory, and reasoning) was analyzed regarding possible alterations during elementary school. In a sample of N = 244 children, the mathematics grade was best predicted by working memory performance in the second grade and by reasoning in the third and fourth grades. Differentiation of these abilities during elementary school was considered as a cause for this pattern but discarded after the analysis of structural equation models. Thus, with respect to output-orientated curricula, scholastic standards, and a large inter-individual heterogeneity of students, it is implied for teachers to account for different cognitive strengths and weaknesses of their students, using adequate tasks and teaching strategies like self-differentiating tasks and adaptive explorative learning.01A - Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschrift
- PublikationVisualisierung des Bayesianischen 2-Test-Falls(WTM, 2017) Binder, Karin; Krauss, Stefan; Marienhagen, Jörg; Bruckmaier, Georg [in: Beiträge zum Mathematikunterricht 2017]04B - Beitrag Konferenzschrift
- PublikationVisualisierung komplexer Bayesianischer Aufgaben(WTM, 2016) Binder, Karin; Krauss, Stefan; Bruckmaier, Georg [in: Beiträge zum Mathematikunterricht 2016]04B - Beitrag Konferenzschrift
- PublikationNumerische Darstellungsarten statistischer Informationen(Franzbecker, 2016) Bruckmaier, Georg; Binder, Karin; Krauss, Stefan; Plackner, Eva-Maria; von Schroeders, Nicolai [in: Daten und Zufall. MaMut – Materialien für den Mathematikunterricht]04A - Beitrag Sammelband
- PublikationEffects of visualizing statistical information – An empirical study on tree diagrams and 2 x 2 tables(Frontiers, 2015) Binder, Karin; Krauss, Stefan; Bruckmaier, Georg [in: Frontiers in Psychology]01A - Beitrag in wissenschaftlicher Zeitschrift
- PublikationWelche Visualisierung unterstützt Bayesianisches Denken?(WTM, 2015) Binder, Karin; Bruckmaier, Georg; Krauss, Stefan; Caluori, Franco; Linneweber-Lammerskitten, Helmut; Streit, Christine [in: Beiträge zum Mathematikunterricht 2015]04B - Beitrag Konferenzschrift