Combining machine learning with human knowledge for delivery time estimations

Although machine learning algorithms outperform humans in many predictive tasks, their quality depends much on the availability of sufficient and representative training data. On the other hand, humans are capable of making predictions based on “spontaneous” transfers of knowledge from other domains or situations in cases where no directly relevant experiences exist. This can be seen very well in the task of predicting lead times in goods transport, where sudden disruptions or shortages may occur that are not reflected in historical data, but known to a well-informed human. If the variation can be anticipated and more accurate lead times estimated, proactive measures can be taken to decrease the impact. Therefore, we describe three novel approaches for delivery time predictions, combining a machine learning model with human input. The proposed logic covers two phases, learning based on actual delivery data and capturing human knowledge to cover exceptional situations not reflected in historical data. The proposed models and the resulting estimates were evaluated using deliveries from a retail company. It was found that the pure machine learning model delivers better results than a combination of humans and machines. On the one hand, this is caused by the complexity of incorporating human knowledge into the algorithm in a suitable way. On the other hand, it is also due to the tendency of humans to over-generalise the impact of certain events. Thus, although the pure machine learning model delivers superior estimation accuracy than the human-machine combination, our systematic qualitative analysis of the results presents insights for future development in this area.

Schlagwörter

Fachgebiet (DDC)

330 - Wirtschaft

Projekt

Veranstaltung

AAAI 2022 Spring Symposium on Machine Learning and Knowledge Engineering for Hybrid Intelligence (AAAI-MAKE)

Startdatum der Ausstellung

Enddatum der Ausstellung

Startdatum der Konferenz

Enddatum der Konferenz

Datum der letzten Prüfung

ISBN

ISSN

Sprache

Englisch

Während FHNW Zugehörigkeit erstellt

Ja

Zukunftsfelder FHNW

Publikationsstatus

Veröffentlicht

Begutachtung

Peer-Review der ganzen Publikation

Open Access-Status

Diamond

Lizenz

Zitation

Lochbrunner, M., & Witschel, H. F. (2022). Combining machine learning with human knowledge for delivery time estimations. In A. Martin, K. Hinkelmann, H.-G. Fill, A. Gerber, D. Lenat, R. Stolle, & F. van Harmelen (Eds.), Proceedings of the AAAI 2022 Spring Symposium on Machine Learning and Knowledge Engineering for Hybrid Intelligence (AAAI-MAKE 2022). AAAI Press. https://doi.org/10.26041/fhnw-10989

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